<It seems to me that productivity, the internet and gobalization have served us well, and it aint over yet !!! > You need more exclamation marks for that one. The New Paradigm has not even got out of the womb yet. It's still zygotic.
Sure energy is a free market. OPEC is even free to form a cartel. But others take market share when they do. That's the extreme of free. Oil is about the most free of markets. It's available all over the world. Millions of entities control supply and supply of competing energy sources from photovoltaics to insulation. The Internet even competes - people can use cyberspace instead of a road to get their information and buy products.
It's funny that Q! share price went down. It should do the opposite.
What people seem to be complaining about in all these discussions is interest rates being 'too' high. I really don't understand such a complaint. That's like complaining about the price of anything else. If people don't like it, or think it's too high, they should avoid buying or go into the business of selling the thing which they think is so highly-priced. There's no need for everyone to whine like a fleet of 747s.
I'd like to hear that anyone who thinks interest rates are too high has repaid their loan and gone into lending money. When interest rates increase to where I think they should be, I'll repay my loans. If they keep going up, I'll sell some stock and go into the money-lending business. It's all so simple.
Now that oil is grossly overpriced [and it will be replaced by alternatives such as coal, gas and smaller cars] with interest rates up enough to make people think twice, or three times, about margins and debt levels, or they simply get a margin call, the economy is likely to slow down and share prices fall. Which has happened.
But over the next year or two, oil prices will take a big drop as alternative supplies come on stream and Saudi Arabia and others lower prices to retain market share. The economy will take off like crazy, share prices will zoom and interest rates will probably be lower because many borrowers will be gun-shy [until they see what a huge sharemarket increase they have missed out on then they'll start borrowing again].
There will be deflation and Alan Green$pan will be dropping interest rates as fast as he can go and he'll just ignore the hugely increasing stock market in efforts to avoid deflation which is more scary than inflation.
Personally, I think interest rates are NOT too high [compared with New Paradigm returns available] so I'll carry the risk of debt. I expect a BIG stock market rise over the next couple of years, with no inflation, low unemployment and booming New Paradigm profits with moderate and probably much lower interest rates.
QUALCOMM will be in the vanguard of The New Paradigm.
That's my theory anyway.
Mqurice
DOW 16,000 Feb 2002 |
