To me, the real bear markets are those of the 1970s. The Bear markets since are rather short in duration. It all depends on one's perspective of course.
Hell, the people who lived through the early 1930s were so afraid of the markets that the effects just may have continued through the 70s. I recall when the market first hit 1,000, in January of 1966. Then again in January of 1973. Then again in 1976. Then 1980. 1981. 1982.
Now that does not fit in with the common line of thought about stock markets today, but that is why systems that are backtested prior to 1982 do not work. The market stayed in a range for 15 years.
So since then we have had an 18 year Bull Market. Everything is from perspective, of course. Recall now, you postured a 120 year market. So these Bull and Bear markets over the past ten years are just blips by comparison. If you look at your own chart then from 1982 there is no Bear Market.
I'm just trying to say, Peter, that this is all from one's perspective. The next person may think a Bear Market existed from Tuesday at noon to Friday at 11. What I am saying, is that the market has been Bullish since the early 1980s and really has had no serious retrace at all. From the Long Term perspective, of course. |
