Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 214.11

+3.9%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: kapkan4u who wrote (13611)	10/13/2000 2:28:24 AM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Read Replies (1) of 275872

1.2 GHz $492 1.1 GHz $371 1.0 GHz $283 950 Mhz $248 900 MHz $190 Well, if they produce 3 million Tbirds in Dresden in quarter 4 and sell all of them, they will be in excellent shape in terms of revenue and profits. Even with further deep discounts, they should average at least $200 for this array of parts. So.... is there a market for 3 million parts which average $200 and 1.05GHz? I think so. If they are targeting a mean 1.075GHz(not including guardband), with reasonable process control, there should be little or no product below 900MHz. I think they believe they will sell everything given this kind of discounting and thus just need to reach a certain production level and mean MHz to make the quarter. 3 million parts given 2500w/week seems very achievable as does the MHz mix. I wouldn't doubt they may run nearly all these wafers thru one exposure tool and RIE tool at gate level to minimize tool/tool variations. I guess the key is when they retargeted for smaller channel lengths to achieve the 1.2GHz bin split. If it was soon enough and high enough (say at least 1.075GHz) I don't see how they can not achieve their goal. At these prices, I do believe they will sell all they make (as Jerry has all ready said). I sincerely hope AMD has some sharp Process/Lith/ and RIE engineers that are constantly on top of the gate sector to ensure these jobs are channel length centered where they need to be to achieve the proper MHz mix. Good process control is critical. THE WATSONYOUTH

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