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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis
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To: donald sew who wrote (32843)10/13/2000 8:02:18 AM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (1) of 42787
 
OCT 13 INDEX UPDATE
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Im short on time this morning so will make it quick. My short-term term technicals are at the maximum oversold, and pending class 1 buys. Thats it basicly, they cant get any lower. If it doesnt bounce I will have negated CLASS 1 BUY situations all over the place.

I am still expecting some sort of a bounce into expiration, and will be closing my long positions and adding to my short positions on most up-moves. By next week, if the bounce does occur, I want to have NO long positions unless they are part of a hedge.

For over 1.5 years I have called the a big trading range and back in the summer I defined that trading range from 1340-1550 on the SPX, and said that I will turn very bearish once 1340 is broken to the downside. Although some may think Im late in turning very bearish, I have been playing the downside mainly for a long time since I had felt that the market was heading to the lower part of that big ole trading range of 1550-1340.

Now that 1340 has been broken to the downside I am FIRMLY a BEAR. I will still be playing the swings in both directions but will mainly be biased to the short-side.

I have been receiving quite a few PM's asking me where I think the bottom is and I REALLY DONT KNOW. MAJOR LOWER LOWs were produced yesterday in most of the indices so the trend is still down and feel very comfortable that the NAZ/NDX has strong probability of breaking below 3000 and could head significantly lower over time. But again I DONT KNOW WHERE THE BOTTOM is.

Now is not the same as OCT 1998 or OCT 1999. The market will have rebounds, but until a MAJOR HIGHER HIGH is produced - the TREND is DOWN. And I feel very strongly that yesterday was not the MAIN BOTTOM.

Assuming that yesterday was a short-term bottom, I feel that any rebound will be contained to the FIBONACCI levels if it gets that high. Sorry, dont have the time to do the calculations right now.

There are quite a few bargins now and if one has a long time-horizon, in terms of years not months. Im not talking about the 10-25% gains either, since that can still be achieve on a individual stock in a bear market if one is a good stock picker.
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