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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (76246)10/13/2000 8:05:06 AM
From: MetalTrader  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Lose confidence? How about lost irrationality? This morning the technicals and mood are getting awfully intriguing now to get back into equities other than defensives and oil. Index Put/Call ratio is at levels that are compelling, PEG ratios of tech stocks are at levels not seen in a long time. Even hard landing growth rates are being discounted. Semiconductors, PC's, telco equipment companies are at PEG's of 1. This is even a discount to S&P PEG.

While I am largely in drillers and now even gold, the climactic selling precipitated by the middle east has a bottomish feel to it. Over the last couple weeks the order flow has been on the sell side, with significant selling of the bid-wanted type.

The order flow is beginning to slide toward the buy side. The bid wanted selling has abated over the past 3 days. There is still some short selling which is at a level which is even positive. Complacency seems to have ended. Index Put/Call ratio now is sufficiently negative to think its time to get back in the water.

Absent the unpredictable, energy stocks could pause as defensive money flows back toward tech. While the fundamentals look fabulous for the drillers, I would not be buying but on significant pullbacks. If the energy feeding frenzy goes on for more than another few days, I may indeed be a seller on a trade.

If one is a proponent of global meltdown, financial collapse and apocalyptic days ahead then market indications are irrelevant. I am suggesting that negative sentiment looks very compelling to me for the near turn if not quite already on this Friday the 13th. But it DOES seem an appropriate day to hit bottom.

MT
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