Andy -
Last year, 1995, was one of restricted fab capacity for many suppliers of semiconductors. Order rates went up, lead times pushed out for both finished devices and wafers.
As is common in supply-restricted markets, many customers pumped up their order rates to insure/secure a viable supply of product for their manufacturing lines. Cisco is rumored to have stuffed its warehouses full of chips.
This gave a large boost to Altera, Xilinx, etc during the 1995 time frame.
However, this bubble burst in late 1995. (I won't pretend to know the answer to why it burst!) Lead times shrank, wafer capacity suddenly loosened up and it quickly became a buyer's market.
So, those companies like Cisco, Stratacom, Bay Networks, etc. ratcheted back their order rates - they didn't need the extra devices due to swollen inventories. Further, when and if these inventories were worked down, they could be replenished QUICKLY from the likes of Altera, Lattice, Xilinx, due to greatly decreased lead times.
So, the PLD manufacturers now hold the inventory. That is now restricting growth.
Re: Lans and ATMS - I think that the basic Internet/Intranet growth will propel suppliers in this arena. Cisco, Asend, Cascade Communications, FORE, etc, seem to be holding up OK as far as their Internal Growth.
As the market for LANS, Routers, Switches, etc grows, the business conditions for the suppliers to these industries will also improve. But this growth is now approaching normal patterns compared to the panic growth of 1995.
Paul |
