Hello -
In re: GRDL/ASVI/OMQP, you're right, it is a similar group. Indeed, so similar that these stocks, at least on cursory inspection, seem to move together more often than not. Unless a problem crops up with Gehl, I'm more than likely to make them my proxy for that sector.
Gehl's success with construction equipment has made up for what has been more disappointing performance in agriculture, quite true. Indeed, that Gehl's two markets are not always correlated has helped smooth their revenues and earnings recently.
I think they have a fair PE for a small, cyclical company at a time near the end of a business cycle. That, I think, is why the DE announcement bumped the stock: Deere's optimism indicated that the cycle may not be ending as soon as expected.
Perhaps that's the key to why Gehl has jumped so much more than Deere or Case: it's very small ($100M mkt cap vs. Case's $5B and Deere's $15B), and so its PE will compress more in the face of a slowdown, and so have further to unwind if that slowdown no longer is expected. |
