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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis
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To: horsegirl48 who wrote (32891)10/13/2000 1:48:38 PM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (3) of 42787
 
Horsegirl,

I am really focused on statistics. Per my previous research I did not evalute the statistical probability of retests that took 5 months, if there were any. So I cannot make a firm conclusion based on statistics.

I can say that I feel that 5 months seems too long for a pattern. I recall someone quoting from some rule that extended patterns beyond 3-4 months lacks reliability. That comment was applied to a discussion we had on WEDGES. I feel that such rule could be applied to probably all patterns. It doesnt mean that it cant be a double bottom retest, just seems too long.

My suspicion is that at best we are in another trading range, I did say at best. We need to keep in mind that the most current trend is down producing lower lows. If a lower high is produced then the downtrend remains intact, so lets see how high this takes us.

Also keep in mind with chart patterns that a smaller chart pattern can develop in a larger chart pattern. Lets say there is a large upward trend channel, but within the trend channed there could be a bearish something developing. So the smaller/more recent moves are more meaningful since that smaller pattern could negate the bigger one.
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