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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.21

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Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: flatsville who wrote (60556)	10/13/2000 3:47:33 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (3) of 99985

Flatsville---not good with inserts so here goes with the numbers----The Naz bear is in 3 Stages--the A wave dropped 40.7% in an a-b-c fashion from Mar 10 to the May 24 low---(actually an abc-x-abc). The first abc dropped from 5132 to 3649 on Apr 4, then rose to 4475 in 5 trading days including the turn day (like today), after which the second abc down finished the job by dropping to the 3043 low print on May 24---This entire A Wave decline from the top was a 3 wave count, like a double zigzag, not a 5------Then we embarked on a B Wave rally that peaked on Sept 1st at 4260 (ignore the aug peak because the ndx peak on Sept 1 was a bit higher than the Aug peak)----From there, I think we are going to end up doing another 3 wave C down below the bottom of the 3043 of the A----the (a) part of this drop likely finished this morning (new moon too) as 5 little waves down--we are now in the (b) retrace, which could extend into mid-late next week and top out say 3600-3750--to be followed by the final (c) wave shot down into the 2400-2800 area to scare the daylights out of everybody and end the ABC drop from the Mar 10 peak.... As to what might trigger the final drop?--well, take your pick, Intel reports after the close next Tuesday and might poor cold water on Q4, not just Q3--Egypt goes to the pools next week and Mubarak may lose and radicals may take over and thereby stir the pot even hotter re Israel vs Palastinians--etc etc ---I do NOT believe that 3043 will stand--C waves usually go below the bottom of the A so as I see it we have another shoe to fall before Halloween (C would equal A at about 2550). All sorts of fib turning points due last week of October, We shall see

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