Jduffy wrote:
Bruce, everything you say is true. JNPR is a great company. I've stated so. I say it is overvalued. You say it isn't.
I don't recall saying that, but feel free to dig through my posts to find where I said Juniper was not overvalued. It has the highest valuation of any of the NGN companies. A large portion of this is the CAP (competitive advantage period) be awarded to it. We've seen the same type of thing happen to software application vendors like Siebel, Ariba, i2 and on the enabling technology a gorilla like Cisco. If you extract the revenue growth from the two that seem 'most overvalued' (Ariba and Juniper) you will find the kind of hypergrowth literally never seen before in any other company in technology over the past decade or two. I would never say that is justification for any current valuation, but it does address part of the issue surrounding the 'hotness' of either stock in their niche. We could toss in Brocade to that mix as well. No need to compare the valuation to Qualcomm as that stock went to the moon because they didn't have that kind of revenue growth to back it up.
The one poster said don't fight the tape. He is right. I'm extremely confident that JNPR will trade at a P/S and P/E ratio that is in line with a company exhibiting its growth rate at a future time. Right now it is a "hot" stock. Nothing more. It will return to earth. To those accusing me of spreading FUD, I have done no such thing.
Therein lies the problem. Can you find some companies growing at Juniper's rate for me. I don't mean 100%, 200%, 300%, 400% or 500%. I mean 581%. Accelerating sequential quarterly growth. And make sure the target market growth is a large as the target market for Juniper. Hard to come up with any candidates, isn't it?
I'm quite sure the share price will be volatile, but it's not the share price I'm interested in as my focus at this point. It's the trendline in the growth, the execution and the pieces of pie that Juniper is grabbing out there for nourishment. You're not going to find a PEG of 1 to 2 on this type of growth machine. For that, there's BMC software or something of that ilk.
I didn't accuse you of FUD that I know of, but I would be curious at what price point you shorted. Maybe you could tell us which data and strategy you are using in terms of your short. The reason I ask is because I appreciate a successful trade in either direction. SpyTrader taught me a lot on the Ariba board when he shorted and made a successful $45K. His entry point and exit point were backed up with quality data and my hat goes off to his trade. I was curious if you could share what you're watching in terms of chart, resistance, supply/demand, etc... . It could be educational and take the heat off of the FUD line of posts.
BB |
