OT> Joe, In response to your concerns. . .
[NOTE: Nothing concerning the markets in this post. . .]
I was looking forward to spending the evening with my family. Instead, I am forced to explain trades that I make. I will not express my feeling about this inconvenience at this time. At the same time, I doubt that I can get through this without "venting" back. So please forgive me in advance.
I will accept your criticism and your attack openly. The wild markets of late have put traders on edge. So I understand.
So I will show you my trades. However, I would be very interested in reading market predictions made by any person from August 1st through October 13th that were consistently ACCURATE AND CORRECT. [Just be certain of the accuracy of what you present.]
Calling the market in the year 2000, with its incredible volatility is very difficult. I highly doubt you will find anyone who has called each of the market moves publicly in the last 10 months with any more accuracy.
And as for getting baffled by the past few weeks. . .Am I supposed to be Superman or what? You are being unrealistic.
And you are not mistaken that for many months now, on a daily basis, whenever I decide to post my trades in real-time. . . no matter which way I trade, nor whether the stock is at the top or bottom of its intraday. . . heavy volume tends to play in an opposite direction. Lately many traders have pointed out that these efforts have increased dramatically.
That's enough to make you "gunshy" on making any individual stock calls in real time on Silicon Investor. It is just too wide open to lurkers here. Do you want to know how I've been able to prosper through this phenomenon? By saving my best stock calls all for myself. . .until we get on Insighters.com. For instance, Wednesday I loaded my boats with EQIX and USIX. They were both dirt cheap and thinly traded. Look where they ended the day. If I do not post the trades publicly, do they not count? I mentioned them to just a couple of people in letters. Does that count? I certainly do not post all my winning trades. That would be quite boring and would be of little use to anyone.
I make 20 to 50 trades daily. It would be silly to post them all in this type of forum. Don't you think? Private chat rooms with no MM lurkers are far better suited. And if I did post all my buys and sells, we would only attract more blind sheep. The whole purpose of this thread is for everyone to LEARN how to become a better trader or investor. . .NOT to follow others. And as everyone contributes ideas and information, we all become better trader/investors.
Also, this is not a TokyoJoe/Anthony/Gilder style board, where the guru makes the calls and the flock follows shortly afterward. I would not want such a thread. And we have come so much further than that. As such, I do not expect my trades to be tracked so carefully.
THAT IS THE REASON I PURPOSELY POST THEM AFTERWARDS!!!
Besides, my stock trades are really unimportant, unless I state that they are "significant" or "important" or that "confidence is high". . .or if I "pound the keyboard". I am certainly NOT doing any of this in the posts of question. And I am avoiding any such posts while in this public format.
So, here are some examples of buy/sell trades I made today. . . the first sells represent the closing of an earlier position. The buys represent the opening of a new position. The broker does not include exact times of Executions or History. But if you insist, I could dig up the confirmation letters, which may contain time data.
Sold [closed] AMD 21 15/16 . . . .bought [open] AMD 21 5/8
Sold ALTR 31 3/4 . . . . bought ALTR 32 11/16
Sold BVSN 23 Pre-Market . bought BVSN 20 15/16 . . sold partial BVSN 21 1/2 . . holding partial from 20 15/16
Sold INTC 39 15/16. . . .bought INTC 39 15/16
Sold LRCX 19 11/16. . . .bought LRCX 19
I made 5 CSCO trades today. . .and dozens of others.
Looking back, it actually went a bit better than I had first thought. . . I don't keep intraday track of my buy and sell points, so until I analyze them after the close, I often don't know how I did.
As for the poster that was voted off the thread, there is nothing to discuss. He regularly disrupted with rudeness and was voted off the island. But he admittedly has an AGENDA, which I must say, YOU Joe, are following to the letter! Think about that a while before reading on.
Many of us work VERY hard here, and do not need to put up with nonsense. PERIOD.
I am sure this is not a tag team witch hunt? But your 'voice' sounded awfully familiar when you said, Thus, when you were on the brink of the abyss this morning I added.
Once more. . . I was not on the brink! Nor was I stating the markets would tumble. Why is this phrase so misunderstood? Is it really that difficult to understand? The markets were certainly on the brink! I explained that already. And if oil had continued to move up this morning, we had few support levels left to hold us. . .and yes, today could have easily been disastrous. I am glad it was not.
But I took precautions by selling many shares in pre-market and into early morning strength. . . .as illustrated. That was the prudent move. And it was the correct move. My only regret was allowing myself to get so busy last night, that after the bell I forgot to place my PMCS buy. So today, I did not realize I had no position until it was too late.
What is it exactly you are accusing me of anyway? Being overly cautious in my trading? Should I stop posting the bad news? And just post the good? Then I would be like every other person out there with an agenda. Sorry. Not interested.
For 6 weeks, I have been trying to find rays of light in this market. Most days it has been nearly impossible. I try to be as objective as possible with my "subjective" analysis.
I stated clearly when I began buying stocks again. . . I said I was nibbling in mid-September. Then when the telecoms and a few others got slaughtered I stated I was starting new core positions. Should I look up the posts? Then when we identified the Phoenix stocks, formerly called "Early Bouncers" and before that "Outperformers", I stated that I was buying them.
I am forced to stay vague with my plays as a defense to attack. . . at least as long as we stay on S.I. [Everything is different on Insighters.] Market Makers will be too frustrated to stay there.
=======SIDEBAR:
You know, the part that upsets me most about this nonsense, is that I am busier now than at any other time since I started this FREE thread. Just because you get an itch does not mean I am the only one to scratch it. I am not obligated to share my trading. But I have received email from literally thousands of Individual Investors, who claim they would like to hear my thoughts, views, etc. Many have expressed how their lives have changed, since learning how to take profits from trading. And THAT is what keeps me here. And it is where I get my joy in this job.
For nearly two years now I have awakened at 6:00AM EVERY day whether I am home or away. . .studied the markets, read the news, analyzed whatever was important to the markets, did my DD, made trading plans, answered questions, answered thousands of emails, and posted my views, plans and predictions. I work on the website until long after midnight EVERY NIGHT.
I sacrifice my time, my sleep and most certainly my health. And to date, I have not received a NICKLE for my efforts. Today is Friday, where is my check? Yes, when the site is up, I'll probably do rather well from it. And I will be proud to post there and answer everyones questions as I can. And that is good.
But it is sad that my family makes the biggest sacrifices of all.
Frankly, you owe them an apology for forcing me to spend "their time" defending myself.
We are making good progress in once again fighting off the illness that struck my wife this time last year. . . relapses are VERY common. . . . and each day is a new struggle. But so far, so good, thank God.
Since working double time on the website, plus my regular schedule of posting/trading, I've had to bow out of most all family outings, etc. I'm talking about since July!! They go to the movies. I stay home and work. And to add to the stress. . . I've had to take on considerable personal debt to finance Insighters.com and may have to still resort to selling off shares in the corporation . . . .something I was trying hard not to do. I could not begin to describe the amount of work that has gone into this project. This stuff doesn't just build itself!
=================================
Now regarding your Yahoo earnings confusion. . . I see no question. Just whining. But here. . .I will illustrate it for you. Take a look at Time and Sales. It is precisely as I posted. . .
October 10
PMCS closed around 171. . . . at 4:49 it was trading closer to 161 . . . 10 points lower.
VTSS closed around 78 5/8 . . . at 4:49 it was trading at 68 1/8.
AMCC closed around 179 . . . . at 4:49 it was trading around 171.
.
Here is post #38379 in full context, from Oct 10 at 4:49pm:
Many stocks in various sectors are down sharply in after hours from todays close. Chipmakers like VTSS, PMCS & AMCC all down around 10 points in after hours!!. . .Lucent is down 6, if you can imagine. . .25 bucks per share. Unbelievable. Nortel is falling in sympathy.
By contrast, net related stocks are up in sympathy to Yahoo's earnings. CMGI, INKT, EBAY, ICGE, DCLK, etc.
Very active trading out there tonight.
Rande Is
Here is the first news that was released on Yahoo:
Tuesday October 10 4:46 PM ET
Yahoo Posts Higher Q3 Sales And Earnings
SANTA CLARA, Calif. (Reuters) - Internet media giant Yahoo Inc.(NasdaqNM: - ) on Tuesday posted higher third quarter sales and earnings that surpassed most official forecasts.
etc.
I did not sit by and watch the Yahoo trading. I was happy with ProfitOften just under 86, where it was toppy. And after selling out of it, I had plenty of things to do outside. An hour later I returned to my PC and noticed Yahoo selling at a fraction of what it was when I left it.
I felt sorry for all those who were forced to trade Yahoo in the after hours.
My final post on Oct. 10 was:
Tuesday, Oct 10, 2000 6:10 PM ET
Reply # of 38379
IMO, The after hours market should be shut down. Daytime trading is enough. I am too busy to give after hours market my attention. Yet today I am FORCED to do so. I'd rather see the various sectors trade an hour or two a day and be done with it. . . but instead the brokers are pushing for 24 hour trading. . . . ."gotta keep dem comishuns flowin'."
I dumped YHOO in after hours around 85 11/16. It is now trading at 77 1/2. At this point, I am not even curious as to why. I am just happy to be out. That is increasingly becoming the feeling I get when I close a position.
Rande Is
You said "what irks me is that. . .". . . .but there is no question for me to answer. So I hope the this illustration puts the issue to bed. Continuing on. . .
At 4:49 EBAY was trading up 1 ½ from its close in After-Hour trading. INKT was trading up a point. . .and continued higher AFTER the Yahoo news was released. CMGI was up about .75 after the Yahoo news. DCLK was trading at $26 when I posted that up from $24 11/16. ICGE was trading up about a half dollar after the Yahoo news. Again, LOOK AT YOUR TIME AND SALES!!
Yahoo was trading up about 4 points when I made that post. Over the next 15 minutes or so Yahoo began to look toppy. . . unable to top 86. As I recall, I got out just as the conference call was getting underway, which would have been about 5:00pm. By 5:30 the conference call was over and the stock began to quickly drop in after hours. The Street.com must have released a half dozen stories about Yahoo that night. . . about how they guided analysts lower.
The Street.com actually published an article entitled: "Yahoo! Tops Expectations, but Cautious Words Haunt Investors"
Which included such literary gems as:
But investors continued to fret about the company's outlook.
But Yahoo! also continued to express caution, which is what investors focused on.
There had been fears that the company, a barometer of the Internet economy, would suffer from a slowdown in ad spending by beleaguered dot-coms.
The final trade on Oct 10 was 76 ¼. The opening trade the following day was 74 ¾.
==============================
I am proposing that something about the psychology of the struggle here the last month has prompted this behavior.
In the context of this vague sentence, I understand "struggle" to be in reference to the disruptive poster we voted off the island again? Nope. Not even close. I have never considered his/her posts as having any value whatsoever. Not since they admitted to having an agenda to disrupt this thread. I am rather shocked that you or anyone would consider anything they say to have any value at all. Clearly, someone with an agenda to disrupt cannot be trusted.
And I am sorry to have to question the motive behind your "concern for my credibility". But you are the first to ever even begin to question it, since starting the HOME thread. I guess there is a first for everything.
I do appreciate your loyalty. And I understand that this message board is much like snapshots of a road race. There is no fluidity. Not yet, anyway.
I hope you appreciate the effort that went into this response.
I'm tired. May I go now?
Rande Is |
