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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: hmaly who wrote (126042)10/14/2000 1:48:18 AM
From: Joe NYC  Read Replies (1) of 1583822
 
Harry,

In addition, AMD has got to show 2001 EPS estimates higher than 2000's; investors want YOY growth in both EPS and revenues.

I know that AMD will give analysts a guidance in November, but just to show how scared the analysts are to stick their neck out, just look at the report of one of the better ones, Dan Scovel of Needham & Co.: Message 14568764

We are maintaining our microprocessor unit shipment and ASP assumption for 2001 at 32.1 million and $100, respectively

This is way too low. AMD will be at production rate of 10+ million in Q1 2001 and about 15 million in Q4 2001. That adds up to 50 million chips. So the difference between most likely outcome and ultra conservative analysis is 18 million chips, or $1.8 billion of revenue, of which at least $1 billion will likely be profit.

I think this stock will be dead until there is some guidance for the analysts for 2001.

Joe
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