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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.150

-1.7%

3:59 PM EST

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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (7572)	10/14/2000 1:20:27 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) of 34857

Would you claim that January-April trends are more important than April-August trends? I wouldn't. Last winter's growth patterns are history. The April-August period is crucial precisely because it is totally different from the January-April period. These trends are only analyzable if you actually attempt to look at the underlying reasons for the numbers. During the period you cite as "crucial" the Korean sub base DECLINED by over a million subs. Do you think this would have occurred without the banning of handset subsidies? If you are going to make a long-term argument based on the numbers...you are going to have to do a little more analysis. Unless you believe that Korea will continue to lose a million subs a quarter..... It seems you are trying to make the case that long-term TDMA growth will outpace CDMA based on the fact that TDMA is outgrowing CDMA in North America and Latin America. I dont think you have the numbers to back you up. Here are the numbers from the UWCC website.... uwcc.org “TDMA-EDGE continues its dominance in the Americas reaching 24.6 million in the North American region, representing a 75% increase over the past year,” stated Chris Pearson, UWCC Executive Vice President. The most explosive growth continued to take place in the Latin American region, reaching 20.5 million, which represents a 123% increase over 1999. The comparable numbers for CDMA are 118% YoY growth in the US and 342% for Latin America. Of course then you will site the fact that sequential growth is more important than YoY growth. Here are those numbers....This is from UWCC first quarter release. uwcc.org TDMA-EDGE currently serves over 22 million subscribers in North America and almost 17 million in Latin America. This means that TDMA experienced 11.8% QoQ growth in North America and 20.5% in Latin America during the second quarter. The comparable numbers for CDMA are 24.9% QoQ in NA and 33% in LA. All CDMA numbers are from the CDG... cdg.org Mexico and Brazil are the keystones of TDMA's current performance. Not very solid keystones based on the above numbers.... I guess you can always shift to a third argument that the situation changed profoundly over the summer...perhaps it did. If so, I would like to hear WHY? Time to show me the numbers.... Slacker Oh yeah....welcome back <g>.

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