MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.21

-1.1%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: OX who wrote (60607)	10/14/2000 2:17:03 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Interesting info. The data could be parsed using other information in addition to the breadth data that's been suggested as possibly helpful (e.g., relative volume, relative recency of new 10/50/200 day highs or lows, time of year, recency of previous comparable gains, and so on, and so on). I think the main problem, though, is that all of the data comes from the great '90s Bull Market: If you picked 20 days at random from around 1990 to the present, the market would tend to be higher at almost any particular later point. The longer the look-forward period, the more likely an increase, and the larger it would be. In a Bear Market, the opposite would tend to hold true. It's almost definitional. It's also not surprising that the worst outlier comes from April of this year.

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