I would feel better if the market would sell down more, I don't know if I will get it. I would venture out of the high tech market some, the QQQ is good to trade not very existing though. First the Big picture. I worry about the market's continuing ability to fund IPO's and venture capital drying up with an extended sideways or with downward bias. IPO's and venture capital are taking the place of research labs which used to be the primary driver of innovation. Without a steady stream of idea's getting funded one of the tenants of the new economy becomes weaken or worse removed. So I'm wonder if we have gotten the shot across the bow if you will with the current weakness in the market. Now the near term. I also believe we are currently in a transitory situation moving from the old guard to the new guard, this will cause the market become narrow. So any large high-tech funds might find it hard to out pace the market because of the inability to concentrate their investing. What we are seeing now with earnings slowing is not going to go away anytime soon. So we are going to get more of the same next earning season. So what I would do is watch for those companies that perform well during this earning season, and haven't fallen too far as the market went all the way back to the spring lows. JNPR, NTAP, EXTR come to mind. With CSCO, as one to not invest in, maybe even EMC. Since I feel bandwidth wireland and wireless is the next big thing and should weather any down turn, stocks that will build out the the wireless net and are involved in high bandwidth and are not part of the old guard should do well. I'm holding EMLX, EXTR, JNPR, QCOM, NTAP, PWER, JDSU I do still hold ORCL and CSCO though, I wouldn't invest in CSCO unless it was for a bounce from an over sold condition. I have an eye on Fuel Cell and Bio Tech, they seem to be in the bubble pricking phase though, BBH would be good for bio tech, after we get clear indication the selling is done there.
Greg |
