jcj. yes. and i can't find it. manipulating numbers to achieve a desired result. how can manipulating numbers change reality? i can't figure that out, maybe you can help me?
perhaps you can show me one time in history where a market didn't revert back to mean valuations relative to other investments (t-bills, etc)? perhaps you can show me a single time that valuations this high didn't lead to a disaster? valuations were near this high when the nikkei was near 40k (what happened eventually?), in the late 60s and early 70s (what happened?) and in 1929 (what happened?). there are more examples and the same thing happened every time.
perhaps you can show me a time where "this time it is different" really was different? i haven't found one.
economics is a real science. people have acted foolish from time to time. arrogance is always a key reason why. i'm an independent thinker (right or wrong). i don't follow sheeple. "everyone is doing it so it must be right" is a nonthinkers approach. if everyone jumped off a bridge...
i see credit exploding, money supply expanding at historically dangerous rates, savings growth decreasing and i see stock valuations near historically high levels. i know the "new economy" is totally over hyped. 1 part truth / 9 parts fantasy. i know that hedonic pricing manipulates gdp and productivity growth so folks are willing to take excessive risk based on a false "new economy" concept. reality didn't change with a calculation change. jumping out of an airplane can be exhilarating and fun. the govt statistics were adjusted to inform you the earth was soft enough to land on w/o a parachute. i'm not jumping, i don't know about you. but, understand this. the view on the way down is FABULOUS!
looking back in time, i wouldn't have made a ton of money in 1927, 1928 and 1929. nor would my approach ield great gains in the nikkei in 1987, 1988, 1989. valuations would have scared me. nor would i have lost all of it and then some as many, many, many people did. i bet folks felt great in early to mid 1929 and the japanese felt great in 1989 when the japanese "miracle" was touted worldwide.
good luck. |
