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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 694.07

+0.7%

Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: Techplayer who wrote (60615)	10/14/2000 9:19:00 PM
From: Galirayo	Read Replies (2) of 99985

The May Rally was led by the SOX .. It started on the 10th. It took 14 days for the Advanced Tech to join the Semi fray. They followed on the 24th. We have seen the Sox attempt several times in the last 2 weeks to rally and Fri we saw the Sox and Advanced Tech participate together. Last time it happened on a Bottom was May 24th. Maybe it was opportune for Abby to interject her forecast or maybe she's just plain good at what she does. But she is one of the Very few analysts that I pay attention to. As far as I'm concerned .. she hit the nail on the head again. Her timing was impeccable. She said basically the same thing last week ?? No? Maybe she was waiting for CSCO to Bottom on support and lead the advanced tech sector. Or it could just be the fact that CSCO and the NAZ hit Support in Conjunction. Book to Bill is as good as it gets ... Can't meet demand. I don't think that will change. IBM says new Fab in Fishkill NY .. Billions invested for the new Fab. GLW is backed up too .. so that bodes well for fiber plays. Networkers .. well you know. Build a Board or chip set with out chips. We are in the Electronics Age ,,, not the Gold Age. Growth will be in Electronics ... not retail. DRAM "could definately" run Short when the Retailers place the Christmas orders and are filled. [ MU & AMD ] may be good way to play this if it bears up to close scrutiny. I also thought AMD was eating Market share of INTC. Can't tell by the stock price but the conference call sure said it that way in so many words. I'll buy more AMD processors .. 4 sure. Proof was in the pudding. I have more trouble with my Emachine with a Celeron. I think E Machines did too. I feel we would have had a Rally on Thurs had there not been problem in the ME. It' was set and primed for it. Dot Coms ... Who knows .. if the General market rallys .. and we get the Down Trendline broken on the NAZ .. Dot Coms are due for a bounce. If the rally fails .. Dot Coms will be hard pressed to do anything except follow the general market. Now if we could resolve the ME pressures .. I'd be camping happily. The ME is the Wild card .. and I understand there are major investments in the industrial areas of Israel. It's a Hot Box of confusion at the moment. Good news is Talks are on. Let's hope for the best from that area. I've placed by bets in Chips and Advanced Techs for now. Ray

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