Rarebird, you couldn't be further from the truth if you think I'm bitter about buying gold at $270 for the past month and hitting the XAU last week and the week before. Gold bug? I don't know what this label means. I buy gold when it's cheap and will sell it when it's expensive.
Here's the posts, from yours truly, the "brainless" one. LOL.
Message 14250337
Message 14539508
Does your analysis of the gold market go any further than looking at what dollar index was yesterday and the day before? In the little March/April correction overseas equities were sold and treasuries bought - hence the dollar was strong during this period. If you're waiting for the dollar to fall for gold to rise, why not just say you're waiting until gold goes up to think that gold will go up? How hard is it to think about the reasons the dollar goes up or down? It's not.
The strength of the dollar is contingent on the continued purchase of US equities by foreign investors, which in turn is dependent on the perception of growth in US companies exceeding those in foreign nations (chiefly Europe and Asia). We are entering a period were future growth is slowing and will be widely questioned - the possibility of a recession is no longer dismissed out of hand. Foreign fund flows have been slowing recently, in contrast to the April/May period, when they were big buyers. Now why is this? Again, the answers are not difficult. As a % of GDP US equities still stand at historic highs while European assets, for example, are roughly half as pricey. And there are more serious problems, such as the lack of savings, the junk bond hits from failed inut companies, slowing of domestic consumption, etc.
The fund managers who get weekly updates from the companies in this index are communicating something. What do you think it is?
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