George Gilder - Forbes ASAP Message Board

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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP

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To: Robert Scott who wrote (5004)	10/15/2000 1:37:46 PM
From: Bill Fischofer	Read Replies (1) of 5853

Everything works until it doesn't That's the real lesson of successful gurus. You cannot be successful simply by following someone else's lead. GG's picks "worked" prior to 1999 because nobody (statistically speaking) listened. Unfortunately, the experience post-QCOM has been a different story. Starting in late 1999 each monthly GTR publication has become a giant game of "beat the clock" with money stampeding into anything George mentions simply because George mentioned it. At a meeting of local subscribers last February I joked that GG should name Bethlehem Steel (NYSE: BS) as an "April Fool" pick just to prove the point. Liability issues aside, I have no doubt that BS would have soared and then collapsed the same way that so many others have. There is also the pressure of "What have you done for me lately?" at work. Good ideas don't appear on a monthly schedule however that's exactly what subscribers tend to demand. As a result, the sound of barrel scraping tends to be heard more loudly with each passing issue. One can only image what the reaction would be if GG candidly admitted that the outlines of the telecosm are pretty much in place and it's time to simply sit back and wait a year or so for things to gel and to give companies time to execute. Ironically, this would probably be the best advice one could give to help subscribers portfolios even though it would be bad for the newsletter business. As a subscriber for several years I have great respect for what GG has done and for his monthly insights into technology which I greatly enjoy and admire. However, I am saddened to see the GTR reduced to being a monthly tip sheet which does few good and many harm. I don't see a simple solution to the problem other than to remind folks that there is no substitute for taking responsibility for one's own investments. There is no free lunch in the stock market and those who believe they can simply follow any newsletter mechanically and be assured of fortune are setting themselves up for great disappointment.

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