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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis
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To: Chris who started this subject10/15/2000 1:41:31 PM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (1) of 42787
 
Many are now asking how much lower can the NAZ go.

In the past I mentioned that I strongly believe that the MARKET MANIA had 3 main sectors - INTERNETS, SEMICONDUCTORs, and BIOTECT.

Based on last weeks lows the NAZ was again down about 40% so it is fair to say that the NAZ/HiTECHs are in a bear market since most say that a decline of 20% or more is a bear market.

It is my belief that in any strong trend almost all sectors should eventually be effected. During the strong bull trend last year almost all sectors went up at one time or another. So the reverse should also apply.

Heres how the 3 main mania sectors did during this pullback:
SEMICONDUCTORS(SOX) - declined 50%
INTERNETS(DOT) - declined 63%
INTERNETS(IIX) - declined 42%
BIOTECHS(BTK) - declined 22%

For the time being the BIOTECHS have held on better than the other SEMIs/INTERNETs.

So can the NAZ/NDX selloff more. If the BIOTECHs catchup to the SEMIs/INTERNETs on the downside, which is possible, and the SEMI's/INTERNETs just remain at the same levels, then the NAZ/NDX could selloff more. Of course we could get sector rotation, but per the senerio I just mention, which is not so impossible, the NAZ could go lower.

So for those who are SO SURE that last week was a double bottom, it may be wiser not to be so sure of anything right now. Although I have turned bearish, Im not sure of anything, and I just played the long side for a nice gain.
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