Picking the Volpe et al. numbers from last April and pointing out that things are proceeding nearly as expected is a great move - I knew I could count on you for a nimble spin on the autumn trends. As a debater, you're too demonically canny for a simple country boy to match. But let me make a stab at a defence: I think it would be more illuminating to step back and look at the projections of 1999. And compared to those numbers, the slippage taking place is already more than "marginal".
How about the Dataquest call on sluggish TDMA growth made last year? That's a far more interesting comparison for the current numbers. When you choose to highlight a prediction made only six months ago, of course it is going to be only "marginally" off at this moment.
When we look at what the projections were a year ago; *then* we see some interesting aberrations. By the time the "audited actuals" for current sub trends emerge, markets will have already responded.
The PDC number of Volpe et al is incomprehensible. NTT-DoCoMo has already made a decision about W-CDMA - they don't want even the first generation of products to have dual-mode capabilities. What on earth would prevent PDC sub base from tanking when the only 3G alternatives are going to be W-CDMA and cmda2000/IS-95 phones? There is no possible scenario where PDC base remains high in 2004 unless both W-CDMA and cdma2000/IS-95 fail simultaneously in the market place.
I'm vehemently against using "LA" as an acronym for South America... I think the common term is "SA". And I doubt that the Anatel decision is going to have a big impact until 2003 or so.
You wrote:
"CDMA total subs exceeded TDMA for the first time in Q1 1998, and with the exception of a few quarters since, the gap has continued to widen each quarter"
Right. And we are experiencing one "exception" right now. An exception that has pretty profound implications for the all-important 4Q guidance of various companies.
I am not gloating over the March 2000 confusion over China. I'm gloating over the March 1997 - March 2000 confusion over China. This is ancient history now, but I wrote this column called "CDMA in China - Part XVIII" in the year 1998. You know what's funny? I could change the dates and publish it again, word for word. Only some of the numbers are different. And the fact that Unicom is preparing for its grand IS-95 launch by ordering GPRS networks. Otherwise, the endless progression of giddy little "This time Unicom is *really* serious!!!" news flashes continues as the GSM base keeps climbing.
I think we can agree that Sprint has had the most aggresive stance on WAP in North America. I think we also agree that most of its rivals are far less enthusiastic in pushing web-enabled phones on consumers.
And you know what? The subscriber addition growth of the biggest US operators during this quarter will tell us all we need to know about how smart it was to push mobile internet so strongly at this timepoint. Not the subscriber growth - but the subscriber addition growth. That's the measure of momentum.
US consumers are about to reveal us just how much they cared about mobile internet during the third quarter of the year 2000. This does not mean that WAP is doomed or that M-commerce has no future - it's a question of which companies got the timing right.
I'd say we have about 18 hours left before this thread degenerates into a nasty food fight - so let's enjoy this short respite before the old pattern re-emerges, Eric.
Tero |
