<<<<The only certain thing is that it will drop by an amount equal to the value of LMNE shares distributed.>>>>
<<I dont think that is certain at all. The whole idea of the spin-offs is to unlock shareholder value. If MRVC drops to a market cap of say 1 bil., that would be a huge discount to their Zaffire and CWNT holdings alone. Not to mention their other holdings. I just don't see it happening. >>
Well, I think you are both right.
Yesterday, I posted this equation for MRVC price, after LMNE starts trading.
M = 2L + EE (EE = everything else)
EE is a VARIABLE, not a constant, as it represents the market perceived value of MRVC's operations, apart from LMNE.
Distribution of LMNE shares is likely between February and May per the revised S1.
If OPXS were not in the picture, at distribution time, we get LMNE shares and the equation would revert back to:
M = EE
BUT, OPXS IS IN THE PICTURE!
If OPXS trades in January, the MRVC equation just prior to LMNE distribution should be:
M = 2L + n1(O) + EE
where n1 = the ratio of OPXS shares held by MRVC to MRVC shares outstanding, and O is the price of OPXS on the day LMNE distributes.
Thus, AFTER WE GET LMNE shares, the equation would revert to
M = n1(O) + EE
Of course, the market perception of EE will be changing too, so it can certainly rise on it's own accord. |
