Tero,
<< you're too demonically canny for a simple country boy to match >>
Me, a country boy from the 'Burbs' close to AMPS sites, demonic? ...
You are the skilled an sophisticated urbanite wordsmith and wireless analyst. I may debate you, but I admire your wireless industry knowledge and the way you turn a phrase.
<< How about the Dataquest call on sluggish TDMA growth made last year? >>
Bad call. Particularly on Brazil growth. CDG's call in 2 articles published earlier (mid 99) were much more accurate. As I commented, Gartner Group is way to the conservative side on subscriber growth in general.
<< When you choose to highlight a prediction made only six months ago, of course it is going to be only "marginally" off at this moment. >>
To be fair, any China numbers were indeed backed out, but going into 2000 CDG was not projecting any significant numbers for China, and Terry Yen knows painfully well that would be suicidal. I suspect CDG will remain bearish on projecting any China numbers for 2001 as well, and rightfully so.
<< By the time the "audited actuals" for current sub trends emerge, markets will have already responded >>
I agree, which is why the EMC's of the world are so valuable. I am sure that their feedback to GSMA is much more up to date than what we see published on the GSMA site, which is why they are so valuable a source.
They sure screwed the pooch however on GSM-1900 last year, which is why Nokia could not take an order for GSM-1900 handsets after June for late 1999 delivery and massively shifted focus to TDMA here.
<< The PDC number of Volpe et al is incomprehensible >>
I agree, and stated so.
<< I'm vehemently against using "LA" as an acronym for South America... I think the common term is "SA" >>
I thought same till I took responsibility for LA distributors, back always. LA is preferred, and this is reflected in the way GSMA, UWCC, and CDG, now classify regions.
<< And I doubt that the Anatel decision is going to have a big impact until 2003 or so >>
Given the time it takes to buildout a digital network and the delay in auctions, you could be right, but I think we'll see impact by last half of 2002.
<< I think we can agree that Sprint has had the most aggressive stance on WAP in North America. I think we also agree that most of its rivals are far less enthusiastic in pushing web-enabled phones on consumers >>
We can certainly agree on that. They have done a fine job.
I have been a bit frustrated with Verizon in that regard, but they have been saddled with the integration of networks. Things are coming along quite nicely. Two way SMS and OTA provisioning should be operational Q4 and the WAP server enabled OTA could be a boost to subscriber growth.
Verizon "MobileWeb" was set up late summer, and gets better each week. If you are not familiar with it, check it out at:
verizonwireless.com
I am actually starting to use WAP a bit (sparingly) although Mobile Internet to me is a phone used as modem, connected to my PDA or Laptop. AvantGo & ProxiNet are 2 fine services.
We should not shrug off AT&T's WAP enabled "PocketNet" either. I am seeing more and more businessmen carrying the quad-mode Ericsson R280LX & Mitsubishi T250, and actually using WAP enabled mobile data. This has not hurt TDMA growth in the US by any means,even though the data technology employed is CDPD.
<< And you know what? The subscriber addition growth of the biggest US operators during this quarter will tell us all we need to know about how smart it was to push mobile Internet so strongly at this timepoint. Not the subscriber growth - but the subscriber addition growth. That's the measure of momentum. US consumers are about to reveal us just how much they cared about mobile internet during the third quarter of the year 2000 >>
Q4 will tell us more,IMO. Verizon is really pushing for this quarter, and Sprint PCS adjusted Q3 for this reason.
<< This does not mean that WAP is doomed or that M-commerce has no future - it's a question of which companies got the timing right >>
Timing is important. I think that's what Jean-Francois Pontal and George Schmitt have been saying about GPRS delays.
I also think that Voicestream is significantly disadvantaged by not having a WAP enabled device in their lineup. Maybe their favorite vendor will surprise us and have devices in their stores for the holiday season.
As for the introduction of the Wireless Web in the US, we were a tad behind in wireless data services to begin with, so it is time right now to start introducing services, and educating the consumer. It is disenheartening to hear that the IT departments of corporate America, have little or no plans for wireless data services in next years budgets (which I guess backs up the point you are making).
BTW: any clue as to when Nokia will release the their first Symbian "Communicator" (WID)?
Regards,
- Eric - |
