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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 40.56

+10.2%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Elmer who wrote (113706)	10/15/2000 10:28:44 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) of 186894

Re: where are you getting this crazy notion that it will have double the manufacturing cost? Clawhammer is to be 5% larger than Athlon. Which makes P4 217/125 times the size of Clawhammer. Yields go down as die size goes up so I would make a rough estimate that a die about 1 and 3/4 times larger would yield about half as many parts per wafer or double the manufacturing cost. It's a rough estimate, but I think it's a fairly robust one. What do you think? If ASPs stay high, it's not terribly important (look how successful AMD has been with a larger die than PIII) but it was still be a boost to AMD and a drag on Intel. It's interesting, because it looks like we will see almost a mirror of the current situation: AMD's chip will be smaller (it's now larger) and AMD's case/PS/motherboard will be less expensive (it's now more expensive). P4 will probably scale higher in MHZ (right now AMD scales higher). What may be different is that IPC on P4 may be significantly less than Mustang (as opposed to the present rough parity) and there will probably be either less or more of an MHZ difference. Dan

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