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Technology Stocks : Juniper Networks - JNPR
JNPR 39.950.0%Jul 2 5:00 PM EST
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To: peter michaelson who wrote (1759)10/16/2000 12:40:22 AM
From: peter michaelson  Read Replies (1) of 3350
 
I put together three years of quarterly income projections for JNPR. Very simple. Give them a very healthy sequential growth rate, 65% gross margins they've had, operating expenses of about 12%, and net as 70% of operating income.

The point I am trying to make is that even with continued incredible growth, the current market valuation is difficult to justify.

I will summarize these figures on the next post. Critiques are requested.........

		QI-99	QII-99	QIII-99	QIV-99	QI-00	QII-00	QIII-00	QIV-00	QI-01	QII-01	QIII-01	QIV-01	QI-02	QII-02	QIII-02	QIV-02	QI-03	QII-03	QIII-03	QIV-03
																					
Revenues		10	18	30	45	64	113	201	302	377	434	477	525	577	635	699	769	826	888	955	1,026
   % growth			76%	68%	54%	41%	77%	78%	50%	25%	15%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	8%	8%	8%	8%
																					
G.P.		4	10	17	27	39	72	130	196	245	282	310	341	375	413	454	500	537	577	621	667
  % rev.		37%	54%	58%	59%	61%	64%	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%
																					
Expenses		11	14	20	28	33	41	48	60	68	75	80	85	91	98	105	113	120	127	135	143
  % rev.		105%	78%	66%	62%	52%	36%	24%	20%	18%	17%	17%	16%	16%	15%	15%	15%	15%	14%	14%	14%
																					
Op Inc		-7	-4	-3	-1	6	31	82	136	177	207	230	256	284	315	349	386	417	450	486	524
  % rev.		-68%	-24%	-8%	-2%	9%	27%	41%	45%	47%	48%	48%	49%	49%	50%	50%	50%	50%	51%	51%	51%
																					
Net Income		-7	-4	-2	3	8	20	57	96	124	145	161	179	199	220	244	270	292	315	340	367
  % rev.		-67%	-22%	-5%	7%	13%	17%	28%	32%	33%	33%	34%	34%	34%	35%	35%	35%	35%	35%	36%	36%
																					
Shares		45	55	120	131	175	346	346	346	346	346	346	346	346	346	346	346	346	346	346	346
																					
EPS		-0.15	-0.07	-0.01	0.02	0.05	0.06	0.17	0.28	0.36	0.42	0.47	0.52	0.57	0.64	0.71	0.78	0.84	0.91	0.98	1.06
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