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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Bruce Brown who wrote (33198)10/16/2000 1:16:11 AM
From: Seeker of Truth  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Bruce, I think it is Tekboy who is some AI creation, that doesn't really exist. Can you imagine somebody who is very busy with their first baby, comments frequently on our thread, and also finds the time to hold down his regular job? Obviously the programmers went overboard this time. Their creation is, for a change, unbelievable.
Changing the topic, I've been struck by your remarkable success in picking young companies. But I think, unlike the gorilla game, your methods cannot be imitated. My experience with R & D is that even the people closest to the thing don't really know whether or how much it will succeed. It's usually one big gamble, often a much bigger gamble than top management knows about. Take Rambus for example. Recent reports from Intel suggest that the rambus memory chips were not tested thoroughly enough under realistic conditions. Their speed superiority may be an illusion. Surely the Rambus R&D people didn't predict that and how could an outsider do so? That said, of course people with a deep knowledge of a field can make a better guess about the probable success of a new product being developed than can an outsider to the field. So while the judgements can't be as certain as those for established gorillas they can be sensibly made by experts in the area who also understand the market for the product. I congratulate you on your success in zooming into the expertise in each area. However it would not be possible for me and I suppose there is no general algorithm like that of the gorilla game. One simply must acquire a deep understanding in area after area. With a recognized gorilla there is less research to be done and there is also less chance to make money via an enormous expansion of the Price/anything ratios.
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