Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 219.83

+1.1%

Dec 1 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (14072)	10/16/2000 11:35:04 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) of 275872

AMD has formed a narrow base. It is now trading at the range of the highs during much of 1997 and a trading range from January to February of this year. The company is certainly in a better and more proven position than it was at those times. But the market is going through a "rolling contraction" rather than giddy expansion of multiples and both Intel and AMD are in the cross hairs. Intel and AMD tend to trade together as they are the most closely matched in product mix and analyst coverage. I think AMD is a good investment now but there is no telling where the bottom will be. This could be the bottom. Some technical indicators look promising but momentum is still sideways or to the downside. Perhaps announcements of 800 Hmz Durons or 1.2 Ghz Athlons will help, but that is probably already fairly well known and does not change the current perceptions of this sector or AMD that much. AMD could announce a stock buy-back to put some backbone into the institutional investment market for the stock - this could help stem the fears that a further slide may happen. What else can AMD do to re-phrase analysts and investor's thinking? The most obvious thing is for perceptions to change about growth in PCs and within AMD. AMD may give greater visibility about sales in the 4th quarter - that would help spur the stock higher. Until something changes the perceptions of the sector, analysts, institutions and private investors are likely to chase after the same hyper inflated darling stocks. This is a period of great discontent with the PC chip sector. Tech stocks tend to trade to extremes. AMD looks technically oversold but it has not established an upward trend yet. A marginal improvement in the outlook for PC sector sales should change the perceptions of these stocks significantly. But when?

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