Hi Tony, re: herd mentality
Here's my take on the situation. Intel's preannouncement of a short-term disappointment gave the pundits a chance to pile on, and pile on they did (and continue to do so). The cause of Intel's disappointment is still fuzzy, hopefully they can clarify in tomorrow's call.
At the same time, every PC and semi forecasting outfit has said that the market will continue to grow. Add to this the fact that Intel is making great strides into networking, servers, comm, etc., marking a great inflection point akin to the move from DRAM to uP's.
As I see it, the analysts' information is only worthwhile if you invest with a very short term horizon. Their world view is very micro. If you invest for the long haul, it is better to view the macro trends (unless a major change has occurred to Intel's fundamentals and this has not happened IMHO). The analysts are concerned with Intel's capital spending for increased capacity in light of this short term and possibly overblown demand slowdown. Again, IMHO, Intel will be viewed as brilliant for bringing this capacity on line in quarters to come. Good grief, FABs aren't built in a quarter!
The key tomorrow will be Intel's comments on 4Q and 2001.
Greg. |
