Re: "It will take something other than PocketPC and the X-Box to bring in the kind of revenues they need to give back the old growth numbers."
Absolutely. During the PC heyday decade, their growth was amazing. To extend that, and to support its old multiples, it will take something like totally owning the server market this year, then owning all of eCommerce the next year plus all software sales, then by the third year it gets tough. They will need to own all of retail sales and maybe all restaurants. Then in year four they will need to take over the banking, automotive, clothing, and entertainment industries. While for most of us this sounds absurd, if you're a real Microsoft Believer, this kind of growth is not only possible but inevitable.
Even if their stock had somehow kept growing at its old rate, in just a few years it would have exceeded the GNP, and they would have had to own all earthly businesses, governments, and currencies. And growth beyond that point gets difficult.
Dave |
