How well Intel reads the future
Back in November of 1990, Intel had me write a brochure that would outline for general readers what the chip of the year 2000 would be like. When you consider that they were outlining what the future would look like ten years out, they did a terrific job indeed! Below, a few selections from the brochure you might like to review.
"Line widths. One of the key steps in the transistor manufacturing process involves etching lines in silicon wafers to form the outlines of circuits. This is done by sending forms of electromagnetic radiation, like visible and ultraviolet light, through a circuit blueprint (or mask) containing the patterns of the desired circuits. The narrower the lines forming the transistors, the greater the number of devices that can fit onto a single die, and the faster these circuits will operate. The Micro 2000 team will have to scale line widths down to 0.2 microns (one micron equals one millionth of a meter or .000039 of an inch) This is less than one-fourth the thickness found in today's densest memory chips.
Transistor size. The Micro 2000 team will also have to reduce transistor size a full 25-fold. This will require an enormous investment in process technology techniques that can help Intel engineers fit more transistors into a given area. As a result of this increased density, and improvements in interconnect technology, electrical current can be driven through the chip at higher frequency or "clock rates." This has the effect of speeding up the rate at which a CPU can process instructions. While today's advanced microprocessors run at 25 or 33 MHz, the Micro 2000 team plans to develop a processor that can run at up to 250 MHz!
Chip (Die) size. Another challenge facing the Micro 2000 team is the need to continue reducing the number of defects per square centimeter of die. Today, there are approximately 200 defects per million die. This will drop to near zero in just a decade."
Not too shoddy a guess for 1990 is it?!
Best to all, Ivan1 |
