And all should be aware there have been stocks that have been glory leaders that ended up never getting out of their funk to see the ole' glory days
The difference, in JDSU's case, is that it is really still in its prime (unlike DELL, MSFT, YHOO, INTC, QBOMB, CSCO, etc.). Although there is a lot of volatility, the market has not yet taken out and shot high-margin equipment makers, who are still growing 100%+ a year and giving guidance for same, simply cuz they have "high valuations" (Exhibit I is JNPR). That doesn't mean JDSU couldn't go to 45 without some cautionary guidance, but it'd be a first, IMHO. My guess is, if JDSU continues to fire on all cylinders, it will tread water or move up, market conditions permitting. Any kind of cautionary guidance and all bets are off (look at NOK to see what happens when you lower guidance). I don't think that's likely for JDSU real soon.
but it is short sighted to think that nothing can ever happen to your stock..no matter what stock it might be...with MAYBE the exception of GE :-).
No, even GE will be taken out and shot once Welch leaves and people realize it is just a glorified finance company that could trade at one-third its current value in a bad market, and if it were valued like its financial brethren, IMHO. |
