Well, here's a shot at "reconciling" the claim that the semi cycle is over inspite of the blowout numbers being reported. First of all, declaring it "over" is a bit of a stretch. From what I've read, it's more like the upswing of the cycle is getting tired, and we're in for a slowing of growth, plateau, and eventually a reversal. Timeframe for such is anybody's guess.
While I am totally bullish right now on NVLS @ $35, I do see where it is possible that the growth is decelerating. That is, while the b2b is still growing (along with demand for semi equip), the growth rate could be declining. If that is indeed a pattern that bears out, the question is how long until a consistent observable pattern emerges where even the staunchest bulls believe that we're ticking down. Could be several more quarters of blowout revenue and earnings, even in that scenario. That's my interpretation of the doomsayers thinking. Then again if the cycle is not over or even in decline mode, we could be on the verge of another big upswing! Time will tell.
-John |
