Michael,
The TER warning is tanking the whole sector. CMOS is now going for 1.5X Book and Sales! From what I understand, most of the prior built empty shells and expansion of existing fabs are almost complete. Since it takes so long just to build the shell to put the equipment into, the equip guys may see some order softness for the next 2-3 quarters, as physical buildings are put up to house their gear. However, this is good for the industry as a whole, this will limit over capacity, by putting a stall on the build out. Also the Litho guys are short on glass and can't meet the demand for steppers, further slowing the build-out and thus extending (hopefully) the upcycle for the semi industry. This should be good news, but the market will slam these guys because all they can think about is that it is over.
I agree that the analysts are nuts and puppets for their firm. CSFB brought their AMAT price target to $75 from $110 before. Where were they when AMAT was at $80 a month ago?! They have no handle on what's going on and just look stupid, IMHO, by downgrading now, over 30 points later:
biz.yahoo.com
Fear is good, but this is getting so bad that I think capitulation may be near. I think the NAZ has to break 3000 for all the fear to be realized, but that is more of a guess than anything. A fortune could have been made on SOXX Puts this past month!
Cheers,
Tom |
