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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (25205)10/17/2000 3:34:43 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) of 25960
 
Zeev,

I agree that the "respected analysts" alone are not responsible for the selloff. I do think that one particularly brain dead incompetent has helped set up an unreasonable climate of fear, more because he comes from a house with a recognized name than because of any intellect.

With fear heightened, KLIC's pushouts were deadly but somewhat contained. SFAM and PRIA's supply chain problems were grossly exaggerated. KLAC's business prospects have been completely ignored. The NVLS selloff is something which I just don't understand. The company chose to take a fiscally prudent course rather than let its suppliers rape it. So the market did the job instead. TER, in the test sector, legitimately got trashed for its forward guidance - but at less than 1/4 of its 52 week high, are its prospects reflected in its price?

I suspect that the market is fearing another global recession similar to the Asian Contagion possibly brought on by high oil prices. As such, it's ignoring all fundamentals and pricing cyclicals and growth stocks for that expected recession.

Personally, I think that the market is about to move its track record from prediction 12 of the last 3 recessions up to predicting 13 or the last 3 recessions.

But who knows when it will replace that fear with some other emotion?

Ian.
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