dabum; XLNX, RFMD, IBM , CMTN - OHHHH THE HUMANITY ~
"It's the Valuations - Stupid" is the NAZ/Market story...
Doesn't matter that earnings & the specific subsector outlooks may be very bullish & even if the economy is stil chugging along... it's all about "Valuations" & Liquidity here.
The "Stunner" today - should be the Trim Tabs piece as reported on CNBC today; that MARGIN is "ONLY" 10% less here today,than what it was at the peak of the bubble in Dec 1999 - that stat should have had traders flying to hit the sell button.
Untill "that" statitistic that had to have allmost given Alan G the "big one" today; is eliminated from this market - we "aint" even close to a bottom.
Shockingly; we were led to belive for months here that nearly "all" of the reckless margin leverage that existed this spring had been eliminated - it obviously was NOT. Until this is corrected; being long "anything" in the NAZ is moronic - simply clueless. Anything can open down 30%+ on any given day...
- That's not risk vs. reward bottom fishing - that's Russian Roulette !
People; Greenspan has to "dry up" liquidity here - that margin leverage MUST and WILL be SUCKED OUT of this market -it is happening in its beginning stages here - that's why we're STILL seeing the one day 30-50% haircuts in "name" companies like CMTN tonight and it will continue to happen untill this unprecedented margin is sucked out.
Greenspan knows what the BLS & the FED is trying to minimize , spin & ignore concerning Oil & Energy costs; he knows driving via the rear view mirror cant go on eternally. He's used the ESF to "stabilize" (read manipulate) the markets - he's seen the white's of his own eyes far too often - I am sure. He has to dry up liquidity in the market & that will suck out all that margin - we've got soooooooo much lower to go on that single concept alone; that this aint even a difficult call people... the NAZ is done for a while, this isn't going to be resolved in any 3 day "V" bottom - this is a weeks, months & quarters problem - put a freekin' fork in it.
The first precept in projecting ANY NAZ bottom here; is to project where the NAZ must bottom when that beyond irrationally exhuberant margin level; is removed from the market.
Institutional Investors are way, way, way overleveraged to Tech and equally as negative; they are fully invested here.
There is little ammo left to prop up this market... very little and one hell of a lot of leverage that's about to be sucked out of it. - THAT is beyond a recepie for disaster; that's a road map....(in bold type !).
... in all seriousness; 2 weeks ago the level of serious overall market discussion on economics, money supply, the Fed, global currencies etc... reached the most intelligent & informative level in this threads history . Many here began to look at the market valuations as obviously over valued & where are we now... ?
But; all it took was a market selloff & the messenger and the message had to be attacked...because so many were obviously so wrong.
Ohhh sure; I couldn't resist emptying my cafeteria tray in the ensuing food fight; but when the Princess Di's of the world come trotting out of the woodwork to congratulate the "Ed's" of the world for "their " well thought out posts ?!?!? - C'Mon .... who's Zoomin' who here people ?
I'd like to see the "flakes" run off when they try to silence reality, or the minority opinion; especially when that minority opinion proves so correct & then the messenger & not the message is attacked.
Honestly; what's up with that ?
What have the "Ed's, the Di's & the Sharps really contributed here. Really; show me one original thought, one concept out front of the market here; just one...
Do we "really" want to return this thread to just a coffee klatch hang out for fish stories & after the fact back slappin' ?
... your choice folks - aint nothing in taking the abuse here for me; it's a sounding board - often the best thread on SI; but the referee's whistle needs to blow both ways people....it has to be self governing - aint interested in doing all the crowd control myself.
Well Copper Mtn crushed & now IBM down $7 in after hours... missed the revenue number growth rate of 6% - only hit one half of that at 3%... the beat goes onward & downward ~
XLNX down after hours too... oh my indeed...
Damn; now RFMD - an Invest LTD thread fav - literally decimated here - blowin' up.... I can't take watching any more folks -
OHHHHHHH THE HUMANITY ~
tic - toc ~
Got Gold ? |
