Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: diana g who wrote (76560)	10/17/2000 6:53:56 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Just after the new year for tax reasons? Are you referring to the April-May melt in tech and wondering if it will happen in the OSX? Some folks I know raised cash to cover taxes in Jan-Feb (to their credit, they pay their taxes early). These folks made a tremendous amount of paper money from trading (buying the dips, nothing more) in 99 - far in excess of their normal income (much to Greenspans credit). I don't think that group of folks is as present in the OSX, nor do I think the trading gains are that great. Accordingly, I don't think they'll be a big selloff early next year. On some issues, (FGH comes to mind, much to my chagrin) there may be some tax loss selling. My first screen for companies to short going into tax loss season is that it spends the majority of its volume (over the year) about 20-30% above its avg price in Oct-Nov (the market cap and % fund holding determines the time). FGH, and now NSS fit that. Numerous teeter on the edge - especially late cycle stuff. GLBL, PGO teteering on the edge. Tech historically has weathered inflationary periods well, as they should. I started looking around a month ago, found one (HYBR). Since then the only co I found that seems like a buy at the moment is AMD. In fact, calls are probably appropriate for AMD. If you're not going to rotate a little into gold because it appears to lack the "necessary" demand that oil does, I'd look at silver. It's been in a supply/demand defecit for over 10 years, and its use in film is still growing and is expected to grow for at least 5 years. Over 80% of the demand is inelastic and it should be thought of as both an industrial metal and a precious metal (much like platinum or palladium). It's the single best form of asset diversification one can buy. PS did you wind up grabbing some PYR?

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