<font color=red> Thread, Conference Call notes. Good news.
Server, flash & nw comm - strong:
- Server marketshare is 56% !!! (for servers that are > $10k) per IDC's newly released report (per Paul O). Intel Servers are growing in the forty-odd percent (per Paul O). (This is great)
- 50% or more for Network Comm, flash growth (per Andy B) (This is excellent)
- Mobile shipments set a new record.
- Chipsets up significantly. Flash outstanding - best ASPs volume and number of bits.
- 2001 normal year for PC demand. 16 to 17% growth.
- Is Desktop soft? What about Xmas?: "normal growth patterns in all geographical areas in Q4"
- What about Europe? A: "All geographies to grow same in Q4"
- Europe Sept weak, but okay for Q4? A: 4-8% is lower than normal for a Q4. Andy B asked outloud the following question: so, does it spread from Europe to other areas? We are being a little cautious. Don't know (if it will spread).
- Any indicators it will spread? Demand? A: It's too early to tell. We had a normal Europe. What happened was we were forecasting a blockbuster Europe and we were on track for that in the first part of Sept. But around the time of the gas station blockades, it fell off a cliff. .... blah blah blah... 3rd quarter of Europe was average 4 1/2%...problem is we had forecasted a (phenomenal) Q4-type of growth, 25%, in Europe. It turned out to be normal but not phenomenal. We were on track. Good track, then it stopped dead.
- Q: Europe? Stabilization now? A: Can't answer that...too early to answer that... We are taking a more cautious approach.
- Dan Niles: Q: P4? Costs? A: Cost/processor going down in Q1 over Q4-00, then accelerating cost down. (It sounds like margins are not only great, but it looks like they will continue to be great).
- Andy B: 16 - 17% revenue growth expected next year. We need more capacity. We need more capacity than what we have now. Flash - not even close (to enough capacity), nw comm wireless, etc. are all demanding wafers. Need more capacity.
- Supporting DDR chipset? A: We are adopting DDR for Servers. On desktop we haven't made any comments. However, we are exploring and are looking at it very seriously.
- A: Chipset stronger than MB. 2-3 week bubble is back in chipset shipments i.e. chipsets are 2-3 weeks ahead of microprocessors shipments. We regained market share in chipsets !
- Q: P-3 speed over next few months as it relates to P4? A: We will launch P4 at 1.4 and higher so at the start it will be faster than P3.
- A: Revenue Europe: remained constant. 22% (of WW) sales Q3 from Q2.
- Q: With supply coming online better, and demand softer, how do you see D/S curve? A: 3rd quarter Europe was average. Problem was we had forecasted a Q4 type of growth. It was normal not phenominal.
- Q: Scott from Soundview: 2001 trends? A: cost/unit thru next year lower in Q1 than Q4. Then drops over 3 quarters, then flatten in Q4-2001. Cost of goods - confident on. (Sounds like Intel will continue to have great margins!)
- Q: What about price war? What about Sunday's cuts? A: These are the normal price cuts that are planned, and are signals to the channel about what are the sweet spots products. There will be another cut. Normal. blah blah blah.
- Q: Why do you want to increase inventory? A: We ended Q-3-00 20% higher in inventories vs Q3-99
We ended Q3-00 19% higher revenue vs Q3-99. Last year, we didn't have enough to ship to customers, so this year, we don't want that to happen again. That's why I want more inventory, so we don't repeat what happened last year.
- We now have 7 centers (including Australia/India)
- ASPs flat
- Servers/Flash/Network.
.18 micron came on earlier and gave us better costs. Servers: P3 Xeon Q3 substantial growth 1GHz and is best reflected in our marketshare (56% $10k servers IDC).
- A: Itanium Server: Shipped 32,000 chips. 65 prototype systems to software/hardware developers and OEMS to ship Q4. 66 Servers at Ebiz, of which half were Itanium demos. 400 applications in current development.
- Q: P4? A: P4 - hundreds of thousands in Q4.
- A: Negative news re: Timna. Cancelled because Celeron & 810e chipsets low cost, not needed.
- Chipset: significant increase in revenue/units
- Flash - outstanding volume/revenue/units.
- Server gains. Notebooks growth dramatic. Q1-2001 as fast as possible for new products Itanium and P4.
- Corporate segment vs commoditized PCs? Spillover of commoditization into corporate segment? A: Chipsets have a more visible differentiation. Corp - integrated graphics. Consumers - fastest sells (Jim McMannis - this is your TM!)
- Osha: Margins? Capex assumes flat next year, P4 die size?
A: Steep ramp. There are lots of ways to get at costs ....purchase materials, etc. First 3 quarters of next year, costs down ! (This is impressive!)
- Pricing environment: ASP almost flat 5-6 qtrs now. Q4? Can't answer, but if you do the math behind Andy's #s and we intend to gain marketshare with solid margins...
- Forty-odd percent Server growth. Notebook stronger than desktop.
- Q: "Okay quarter after all? Price cuts? Are these inline with cost reductions?" A: Normal pricing cycle part of...No change. Sends signal for sweetspot products. Margins will be flat even with price cuts.
- Q: Jonathan: Q3 About your non-processor topline growth in qtr? A: Can't answer. Flash, NW Silicon, MB chipset - all strong (in no particular order)
- Q: Walter: Internet trend? How are you taking advantage of that (Internet growth)? (Can you believe an analyst asked this question?!!!)
- Q: David Wong: NW processor 50%, how about BOP? A: Some moving towards BOP, but we don't give this information out. In "other" income... wide business...flash...etc.
- A: Q1 inventory levels 2 wks out. If demand in Europe was week, why not choose to (route it?) to channel? We stopped shipping products into channel - no need to hold extra inventory.
Regards,
Amy J |
