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Biotech / Medical : QLT PhotoTherapeutics (QLTI)
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To: Scripts who wrote (1093)10/17/2000 7:57:10 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) of 1321
 
After listening to the whole conference call, I'm surprised that this morning's gain didn't hold.

First Q of the Q&A came from Bobo yoUHoLe of Ledink. What important piece of information did he need to better ensure the quality of his estimates? Naturally, he just had to know on what line, Kenny G. put the Axcan Pharm. milestone payment. AMAZING!!!

Kenny G. is comfortable with $270M for 2001 - much more than double the 2000 revenues. On the CBC BusinessNews tonight, Kenny advised that hes expects to see QLT grow earnings at more than 25% for the next several years.

Of particular interest was Julie Levy's comments on expanding the Visudyne label. None of those potential revenues are yet included in current guidance or analysts' estimates.

Especially interesting was the insight on the 40% that didn't show benefit in the first year of the trial. During the second year of the trial, there was no further deterioration in their vision.

It would seem that a large number of AMD sufferers have a particularly aggressive form of the disease, one which may well be controlled by more aggressive treatment. So it's quite conceivable that we could see a large number of patients getting 2 or 3 Visudyne doses within a quarter while bringing the condition under control. No guidance has yet been given (i.e. they haven't even done this Ph II yet) to increase revenue estimates for the faster / increased doses per patient treated.

And finally, Julie intends to lock up the entire wet AMD market before MRVT files its NDA (my interpretation, not her words). None of this upside is yet included in anybody's estimates.

... and LeDink with its lowball of $206M for 2001 is likely to become even more of a laughing stock.

IMHO,
Ian.
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