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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 165.84+1.9%Dec 9 3:59 PM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (8778)10/17/2000 9:39:41 PM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
Gottfried,

I'm with you, simple is better (usually). I think this downturn is a herd-instinct thing. Lots of folks think we should be lower, therefore it happens. Fundamentals haven't changed enough to cause current melting, but it's happening anyways. I also think we're not going to see any general soft landing in the economy; and we don't have any economic equivalent of 5 mph bumpers. <sigh>

Growth? Yes, I think there's still room for that in the next 18 months or so. But with all tech sectors generally going down, where's the money to drive growth? I think we'll even get storm warnings of slow/no growth from AMAT and other equips in the next quarter; and every time we've seen THAT it's been a prelude to some drastic stuff.

All in all, though, I'm still in this for the long haul. We sold a small batch of stock way back in March, and haven't touched anything since. On paper we missed our Big Chance, but we weren't interested in trying to time the market in any case. And now we might as well hold it all, eh?

Mitch

PS I don't believe in the correlations either; but I'm a math dweeb, so I look for them. Until you KNOW the cause-effect chain, they're basically Very Risky to use for investment decisions, IMHO.... M
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