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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.92

+0.1%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: minorejoy2000 who wrote (60800)	10/17/2000 10:48:31 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) of 99985

EXTR In my opinion, EXTR broke out of a sound base dating back to april 1999. The breakout occurred on 7/10/00. The pivot is $53 1/4. The handle occurred 7/7, 7/10, and 7/11. The breakout fell back into the base on 8/3 to a low of $58.875. Using the 8% stop loss rule (loss limit reached at $49), if one had purchased this stock just as it exited through the pivot point, one would have been able to hold the stock through the decline. Since the pivot on 7/10 the stock is up 122%. I currently have the bullish support line around $88. The stock tagged the upper bollinger band at $128 with a lower RSI than the last trip to $128 indicating negative divergance. The implication is short term weakness (with the slow stochastic approaching the overbought level). My guess would be a stall with a trip back to bullish support. Once near the bullish support line, look for bottom volume confirmation. Exit if support doesn't hold. Good Luck! Edit: O'Niel makes the point that all bullish patterns, including the cup and handle, are failure prone during bear markets.

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