TP, My sentiment is real doom and gloom will be the step just prior to a real recovery. What one should hope for is some real selling followed by more selling, and then we will see the snap back and steady up. The problem we have been having is we have a moderate selling and the dip gets bought. If this continues, we are truly in a bear market. My charts say we need to break to about 2850 on the naz and 9750 on the dow intraday (the sooner the better), all in one day, and the capitulation will happen that I am convinced is necessary for the money to flow back in strongly, forcing the short money to cover.
If I were short this market, I would hope for these weak selling sessions with weak buying to give only moderate losses each day. If we do not get a climatic selling soon, I will continue in cash, as I believe we are entrenched in a bear market.
If the afterhours numbers hold (IBM down 12-13, Hwp down in sympathy etc), we will open below 10,000 at the open. To me this would be healthy for those long the market. After a slight recovery, I believe it will be healthy to the longs for there to be a even stronger selling, maybe causing a temporary stop to all trading. Then I believe a recovery can and will take place swiftly and steadily through the end of the year. Steve D. |
