From Briefing, apologies if this has already been posted. Guess the CMTN is dead money for quite a while.
Another happy long,
ham
>>>>Copper Mountain (CMTN) : CMTN is trading at $10 1/2 -16 3/8 this morning. Well, we can add DSL equipment providers to the list of sectors that blew up in 2000. Admittedly, we had been positive on Copper Mountain much of this year, then we turned negative going into the Q3 release based on its price action coupled with a candid, though harshly worded Paradyne warning (see our 9/28 Story Stock) last month when CMTN was still at 40....Expect shareholder lawsuits as investors believe they were misled by management and are furious. A recent example is when CMTN's CEO told the Wall Street Journal on 9/28 that he was comfortable with consensus estimates of $92 million in revenue and EPS of $0.26 (both of which were met). Even if these numbers had come up a bit short, that's understandable as mgmt would not have all the data at that point and comfortable does not mean definitely. What's not OK is that he went on to say that concerns about spending by telecom companies are being "overblown." That is a fundamentally different statement from CMTN's Q3 press release less than 3 weeks later: "...in light of recent reductions in capital expenditure forecasts from many of our CLEC customers, [CMTN] expects revenue and earnings to decline..." Couple of points to make here: 1) perhaps, his statement in the WSJ article was taken out of context - only he and the reporter know; 2) it's difficult on its face to believe such a fundamental change occurred in less than three weeks in light of both PDYN's statements and the degree to which CMTN will miss Q4 and 2001. CMTN's new forecasts for Q4 and 2001 are not even in the same area code as their revised forecasts. It must have been a wild three weeks of meetings with telecom companies to go from "concerns overblown" to slashing 2001 EPS by 82%....Couple of reminders: read the whole press release as the stock actually spiked up when it was released. People initially reacted to them making their number, but as they read further they saw the lower guidance going forward which often is even more important than the current results. Also, as Yogi Berra said, "it's not over until it's over." Even if CMTN hadn't warned in its press release, we recommend waiting until the conference call ends as a warning could be lurking there (remember Motorola?)....Specifics of the carnage: mgmt now expects revenue and EPS to decline sequentially in Q4 to $60 mln and $0.04-$0.06, down from $0.28. For 2001, new guidance for revs are $300-$330 mln (at best only 12% higher than 2000) with EPS of $0.16-$0.25, only a shadow of current consensus of $1.37. We would not be surprised if they warned again with Q4 release....For those looking for a bargain, look elsewhere as this could easily drift down to mid-single digits as the sentiment has turned arctic with no catalyst on the horizon. -- Robert J. Reid, Briefing.com |
