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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 211.04-4.7%12:00 PM EST
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To: niceguy767 who wrote (14824)10/18/2000 10:32:32 AM
From: Rob S.Read Replies (1) of 275872
 
There are many reasons for the tech wreck sell-off and even the professional market analysts disagree what or when will influence it. But one influence they appear to agree on is that this quarter is the fiscal year end for funds and they are selling stocks for tax loss and window dressing reasons. Of the two stocks, Intel and AMD, I think Intel is the safer one to hold from the perspective of career building and volatility. AMD is a much more volatile stock in down markets. Intel is safe to own because of it's recognition as the blue chip of semis. This influence has little to do with valuations or relative prospects and a lot to do with image of the professional fund managers and their portfolios.

Regardless of the reasons, AMD is a more volatile stock than Intel, particularly in down markets. If the tech stocks eventually recover, (they could continue down for months but I doubt it), AMD will move up by a higher percentage than Intel imo. Intel will probably be the first stock to recover as the market favors the blue chip category stocks during initial rebounds, but AMD has the largest potential to the upside.

All that said, I think the place to be outside of a recovery rally in the high techs will be small to mid cap growth stocks. Many tech stocks are still highly priced. The NAZ is still at a high multiple relative to historical norms. Granted, it is much less in outer space than it was in April or subsequent suckers rallies. If the economy remains healthy then within two to three years the tech sector will validate the nose bleed valuations investors gambled on early this year.
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