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Technology Stocks : COM21 (CMTO)
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To: Michael Hart who wrote (2295)10/18/2000 2:56:42 PM
From: pat mudge   of 2347
 
Mike --

When Terayon saw the DOCSIS writing on the wall and knew they were a day late and dollar short, they began buying up small companies like there was no tomorrow, among them a couple playing in the DSL market. While recent slides have been in part "telecom spending" related, today's has to be in response to the CMNT announcement that DSL revenues would be disappointing in Q4. The travesty isn't that TERN is trading at 19 but that it ever traded at 142.

As for CMTO's management, I honestly don't know the CEO-designate, so can't comment. The company's made up of talented folks who are also honest so I have to believe the move will be positive for everyone. The challenge in modem sales has been margins and that's what I would watch as much as revenue growth.

I haven't owned CMTO for quite some time as I sold to focus on a major private placement. I'm actually not doing anything in the market right now --- other than watching the stocks I still hold, most notably SDLI, my largest position.

After a drop like we've just experienced, money goes back into the stalwarts first and then into the high-achievers in high-growth sectors. Only later does it flow into beaten down stocks that haven't yet matched their potential. I'd put CMTO in this last category. As for TERN, I'd have to create a new category with a title like Ponzi Post-mortems, or something similar.

Pat
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