I'm not a short. In fact, I was once a believer in Ariba. I sold most of my holdings at 170 (a combination of luck and wit) and i just liquidated the rest today before the market closed.
I'm not saying this to brag or because I like to read my own posts. I wouldn't short here because I think it -could- have some temporary upside. But honestly I agree with the people on here that have been saying how overvalued it is. Can anyone say this is a "rational" price? Ariba will have to grow into this price, and it will take a long, long time.
Sure, point your finger at other "irrationally" priced stocks. They ALL have come down in their own time, or will eventually, as the market is fickle. Who knows, maybe a year from now B2B stocks will get the cold shoulder because there's something out there that promises more money.
Prospects alone do not make a good company, or a good investment. Ariba's valuation is based almost entirely on prospects. And honestly B2B prospects are not looking as rosy as they did a year ago. If you want to throw money in and never look back, you'd probably be better of with a safer bet, a company that's proven it can adapt to change, expand it markets, position itself where it needs to be, and execute. Has the Ariba management shown that their team can do all these things consistently and effectively? For example, how are they planning on maintaining customer loyalty in a market with so few barriers to entry?
Just my two cents. I'm not short and I'm not trying to convince everyone to "dump this loser" .. I'm just saying that if the market wakes up there is a lot of downside to this one. And with irrational exuberance being over for the time being, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of upside.
-G |
