Paul,
What percentage of Intel's sales will be P4? Does it
matter if the P4 is better than the Tbird? Does it
change the fact that the new Tbirds spank the P3?
In late Q4, early Q1 '01, it will be the 1.33 Ghz DDR
Athlon versus the 1.4/1.5 Ghz P4. You can expect
similar performance from the two, and the P4 will be
hundreds of dollars more expensive. If the P3 1Ghz
is selling at $500, the P4 1.4 will sell at around $800
and the P4 1.5 may be at $1000. Add in 2 128 MB sticks
of RDRAM and you're looking at an additional $350+.
Toss in a motherboard, and you're looking at north
of $1500 for the 1.5 Ghz version. I'm guessing $2500-$3000+
for the first P4 systems.
A DDR 1.33Ghz Athlon will probably cost $600 for the CPU,
$200 for the mobo, and $300 for the memory. That's
around $400 less for similar performance.
Remember, AMD only needs ASPs of $90-100 to make a lot of
money. Intel's ASPs are still around $180, mostly because
of Xeon & Mobile. AMD will not destroy Intel by any
means. What may happen, however, is that much of Intel's
growth will be deflected by the strength of AMD. Imagine
if AMD only had 700-800 Mhz CPUs right now, Intel
would have very little incentive to cut prices. I for
one am very happy that AMD is so competitive.
-Andrew |
