Agree today was too fast. Pull up a weekly chart and draw your trend lines. I can draw them using various methods and still get this morning's touch. Weekly reversals tend to form on those lines, not touches and bounces. We need to put a hammer on the line with the body sitting on it and a intra week over shoot to the downside before bouncing back or else we need to form a black candle down onto the line ending the week on it then start the next week on it and form a large white candle to form a tweezer, something of that nature.
Also, looking at various important stock charts on the weekly scale, same thing. SUNW trapped under a resistance line, among many others. We need a flush in the remaining high flyers or else build a nice sideways base.
Pure speculation, but I am thinking the most news friendly timing model for a Clinton escape is try to hold this area, maybe slightly lower, through the election to try and get Gore in the door, then post elction relief rally only to sell off to my projected Late November/early December low, rally up to let Clinton out the door in a non crashing market environment. Will have to see from there but think the December rally will be a text book bear rally, sharp fast and fierce baiting in the last of the die hard bulls. Just look at a gold stock chart picked at random. Long grinds down, short fantastic looking rallies then back down and more grinding down. Bear markets are a pain to trade. Puts erode in value too much so you either time the bounces to avoid them and sell calls or you short the common. If we get lucky, the bear rallies will be cyclical so we have a shot at timing them.
Good Luck,
Lee |
