Your state-by-state analysis appears sound.
Of the states you mentioned, I would think that Bush would be favored in N.H., Missouri, New Mexico and possibly Michigan.
I would tend to give Gore Florida, Arkansas, Oregon, Washington, Iowa, Tennessee, West Virginia and, a state that you didn't mention, Pennsylvania.
Story on UPI or Reuters tonight quoted a political science professor as saying that Bush cannot win the election without winning Pennsylvania, which has 500,000 more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. Same was said a while back about Florida.
This election might well come down to whether or not the Democrats can get out the minority and union vote. |
