Duke,
Thanks, it's nice to remembered. Especially since my posts have been almost nonexistent the past eight months or so. Let me just say that these are completely different times from our hey day on the MDD thread last October. Back then the overall patterns were bullish, which pointed to the dramatic rise in prices. What we have now, however, are major reversal patterns on many of the key players. These patterns are all encompassing, representing all of the price action over the past couple of years. Take a look at the charts for stocks like CMGI, AOL, and RNWK on a monthly basis. Huge head and shoulder patterns. Obviously very bearish. They are all breaking down as we speak. As a matter of fact this market has been very sneaky in that it has been cutting down these leaders - one tree at a time. They kill investors instantaneously with stocks like AAPL opening down 50%, then rallying the market slightly because the avg joe is so used to buying the dip. This cycle has been repeated over and over again the past couple of weeks. Don't let it fool you. There has been serious damage done to the charts, and imo we are not finished yet. Let me clarify that by saying that even with this rally today I am still seeing distribution of shares, with many stocks running into downward trendlines. So I believe the place to be is still short the market.
I hate to sound negative. I realize to be good at this business you really have to be emotionally detached, regardless of which direction prices are going. But you know that the avg. guy out there is experiencing great pain. Something that could get even deeper when all this is through.
I will be waiting patiently for prices to close at the end of the week. With many stocks gapping huge today and another day left in the week, anything could happen.
I hope this helped.
Regards,
SO
edit: sorry meant to say "down 50%" |
