Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 94.69

-0.8%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Daniel Schuh who wrote (58199)	10/19/2000 10:20:22 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) of 93625

Re: In 2002, the Pentium 4 will start to overtake the Pentium III in terms of revenue, he said, but "in terms of units, it will be longer than that." It could all be this tremendous sandbagging operation from Intel, but once again I wonder. Massive production of a giant chip that's going to be phased out quickly, too many pieces don't fit there. My take is that maybe they just expect the bottom to drop out of the PIII market - that would certainly put PIII revenues below those of P4. AMD looks like it's going to do a pretty good job of positioning Athlon/Mustang against P4. PIII will be competing with Duron and selling mostly to OEMs so PIII ASPs look to be below $100 by the end of next year while P4 may be $300 or higher. Revenue crossover could occur when P4 hit 25% of sales or even less. I think the same thing will be happening with AMD and Mustang. That top quarter of the market is sooo important - and for the first time AMD seems to be assured of a chunk of it for the indefinite future. Regards, Dan

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